Groundwater Asia

Mapping Groundwater Resilience to Climate Change and Human Development in Asian Cities
Mapping Groundwater Resilience to Climate Change and Human Development in Asian Cities
AIT
Assessment of Groundwater Vulnerability to Climate Change, Land Use Change and Abstraction Scenarios in Lahore, Pakistan

Urban aquifers are facing increasing pressure from climate change, land-use change and abstraction, altering groundwater levels and threatening sustainable water consumption availability and utilisation. Therefore, this study projects future changes of climate, land use and abstraction, while analyzing the vulnerability of groundwater levels to such changes and formulating adaptation options to reduce the vulnerability of groundwater resources in Lahore. The objectives are achieved using the modelling and qualitative approaches.

The results show an increase in mean and extreme climate under climate change scenarios. The warm and wet extremes are projected to increase (significant at P=5%) under medium (RCP4.5) and high end (RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual changes in all climate indices will be significant except for the warm spell duration index. Land use projections show increased built-up in land use type from 965 to 3716 km2 and 3329 km2 under R1S1 and R2S2 scenarios (significant at P=5%). The built-up land use will dominate agriculture land use in the future. The future population will increase (significant at P=5%) from 6.4 M to 24.6, 27.5 and 28.7 M under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios, respectively.

The vulnerability of urban areas will increase in the future due to the high negative impact and low adaptive capacity under combined scenarios. Agriculture and surrounding areas will remain less vulnerable in the future under combined scenarios due to the low negative impact and medium adaptive capacity. The results of this study may help groundwater experts and related institutions to understand the potential situation of groundwater resources in Lahore and formulate adaptation strategies to counteract diminishing groundwater resources in the area.

SHARE THIS POST

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on reddit
Share on print
Share on email

Recent Thesis

May 2020
Groundwater is an essential resource for various uses and has great economic importance in Bangkok and its vicinity, Thailand. In this study area, groundwater is under immense pressure because of rapid urbanization, overexploitation of resources and climate change. Mapping groundwater resilience to climate change [...]
May 2019
Groundwater is a very essential resource and a source of water in areas where the surface water sources are not adequate to meet the demand. But due to over-abstraction and reduced recharge, the sustainability of the groundwater is threatened. The groundwater in the context [...]
May 2019
Groundwater resources in Kathmandu valley, Nepal is perceiving immense stress due to high rate of abstraction along with climate change. The upshot of over abstracting groundwater results in declining groundwater levels and further leads to social, environmental and economic problems. Climate change might add [...]