Thesis

Groundwater is a very essential resource and a source of water in areas where the surface water sources are not adequate to meet the demand. But due to over-abstraction and reduced recharge, the sustainability of the groundwater is threatened. The groundwater in the context of human development is studied in Ho chi Minh city, Vietnam in this research. Three future land-use scenarios of low, medium and high urbanization were developed focusing on the increase of built-up area. Projection of the land-use was done using Dyna-CLUE model to develop land-use maps. The land-use map was then used in hydrological model SWAT to get the future recharge for all the scenarios after calibration. A groundwater model, GMS MOD-FLOW, was then set up and calibrated. Three different future pumping scenarios were developed. The estimated future recharge and the future pumping scenarios were then used to estimate the groundwater level. The groundwater levels are expected to decrease in all the land-use and pumping scenarios. Based on the decrease water level compared to the baseline period, a resiliency indicator was developed, and mapping was done according to the indicator. Bottom aquifers are seen to be more resilient compared to the top four aquifer layers for the reduced recharge and increased abstraction.